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Posts tagged 2012

Mitt Romney’s Space Brain Trust

As others have pointed out, the presence of Mike Griffin on this apparently-hastily-assembled  list of Mitt Romney’s advisors on space policy is utterly appalling. But what of Gene Cernan, the “Last Man on the Moon”?

He doesn’t seem very confident in commercial space:

Do you have any hope for commercial space efforts, like Space X?

It has been the commercial space industry, under NASA’s leadership and guidance, that has allowed us to get to the moon and build a shuttle and everything that has happened in the last 50 years. To entirely turn it over without any oversight to the commercial sector, which is a word I question anyway, is going to take a long time. Some of these guys are highly qualified, but some are young entrepreneurs with a lot of money, and for them it’s kind of like a hobby. Not all of them. But some of them are making claims to get into space in five years for $10 billion, and even the Russians say it’s going to take twice as long if we put our eggs into that basket. I don’t have a lot of confidence in that end of the commercial space spectrum getting us back into orbit any time soon. I’d like to hear all these folks who call themselves commercial space tell me who their investors are. Tell me where their marketplace is. A commercial venture is supposed to use private money. And who are their users? Suppose we, NASA, have no need for their services. There’s no other marketplace for them. So is it really a commercial venture, or is it not? Is it a group of guys who have stars in their eyes and want to be a big space developer? I don’t know.

I don’t think they’ll come anywhere near accomplishing what they’ve said they can do. I said before Congress, and it’s still true today, they don’t yet know what they don’t know. We, if you’ll allow me to include myself with NASA, have been doing this for half a century. We have made mistakes. We’ve lost colleagues. Don’t you think we’ve learned from some of those mistakes? You bet your life we have. They have yet to learn from those mistakes. And I’m not willing as a taxpayer to sit here and pay them to make those mistakes before they can ever get where they think they can go. Now the good news side of this is there are some of the larger aerospace companies looking into getting into it, the Boeings, the Lockheed Martins, the ATKs, are now looking to compete in the commercial side of the business. That’s a little more encouraging. Those are the folks who have been working on everything we’ve done for the last 50 years. They know how it can be done.

Not encouraging at all. Would I still vote for Romney over Obama, knowing this? In a heartbeat. Putting out of office the corrupt and dangerously incompetent disaster currently in the White House would be worth the (manageable) risk of strangling the Obama space policy in the crib. Would we need to keep a sharp eye on a President Romney’s space policy to make sure Mike Griffin and others with Griffinian proclivities couldn’t pull the stake out of the heart of Constellation and resurrect his dream rocket at the expense of a non-NASA-dependent space industry? Absolutely. But when has there not been a need for space advocates to stand watch on space policy?

UPDATE: Interesting that Robert Crippen, another Romney space advisor, served as president of Thiokol Propulsion. 

Scott Pace [PDF] was head of program evaluations at NASA during the Griffin years, and at least as of last August Pace was promoting a return to the Ares I/Ares V architecture (as a better alternative to the SLS, believe it or not):

“Ironically, the budget pressures being put on the program right now would in my mind argue for returning to the previous plan,” Pace said, “which was launch and build Ares I first and build Ares V later.”

Ares I was the first and smaller of tworockets in the now-canceled Constellation program, which also included a Multipurpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) that is being constructed. Ares I, which could have taken astronauts back to the moon, was being developed in Huntsville by many of the aerospace workers now facing layoffs.

For Pace, Ares has several positives. First, a lot of money and time have already been spent on it, and that work would feed into the larger rocket later.

“You build on the work that was already done,” Pace said of Ares I. “You can fly the MPCV. You have five-segment solid (rocket motors) that are already done. You have a use then on the upper stage for the J-2X engine, which is also in development.”

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A Different Blast From the Past

Rand’s observation that the impending end of the decade, um, isn’t actually, any more than 1999 was the end of the last decade/century/millennium, dovetails in a way with an experience I had last week.

While visiting family in Michigan for Thanksgiving, I arranged to speak to my nephews’ middle school on space exploration, space settlement, and math and science. (Yes, a little shilling for Orion was involved, but mainly as an excuse to entertain the kids with cool space-y animations.) At least three times, in Q&A, the subject of the world ending in 2012 was raised.

Naturally, I explained it as a misunderstanding of the Mayan calendar and associated legends, and as a repeat of the Y2K end-of-the-world hysteria from ten years ago. Nonetheless, it was a little disappointing to have it come up at all…I blame Hollywood.

On the other hand, it would have been entertaining to see their reactions to an explanation of the Singularity, which I remember once upon a time being forecast for the same year…

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Roland Emmerich Destroys Even MORE of the World

Practice makes perfect, I guess – behold Roland Emmerich’s latest end-of-the-world apocacataclysmageddovaganza:

Vatican City? That’s innovative. Even Godzilla didn’t wreck Vatican City! And while everyone jokes about an earthquake sending California sliding off into the sea, has anyone actually showed it before? Nice.

I hadn’t realized from previous info that the film had “ships” of some sort in it – it isn’t clear whether these ships are spacecraft intended to flee the planet, or if they are (as hinted in glimpses) simply modern-day Noah’s Arks waiting out the catastrophe at sea. Either way, the premise one can glean from Emmerich’s trailer is vaguely similar to Martin Caidin’s 1987 SF novel Exit Earth, in which a looming planetary catastrophe triggers a similar response.  Oddly enough, my copy from back in the day proclaims in bold type on the front cover, “Soon to be a Major Motion Picture!”.  I’m glad in a way that “soon” wasn’t - the special effects in 1987 would have been pretty lame. 

 Some of the scenes are also reminiscent of the old classic, When Worlds Collide, specifically the panicked mobs rushing up the ramp onto one of the aforementioned ships - perhaps it’s Emmerich’s nod to George Pal.  There was some talk a couple of years back about a remake of WWC, which makes me curious as to whether this instead was the project in question. Too bad, if so - having read the book WWC  was based on, I was really looking forward to a faithful new adaptation…not least because the novel’s escape spacecraft were constructed in the wilds of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.  (While the movie is considered a classic, beyond some of the effects it’s honestly pretty awful, especially given the potential of the book and its sequel.)

UPDATE: Well, it turns out a remake of When Worlds Collide is in fact in the works. Spielberg is producing it, and at least judging by the writing credits at IMDB, the source material appears to be the book rather than the George Pal movie.

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