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There’s No Escaping It

The flight home for the holidays gets worse each year.

Four years ago, I ran into Michael Moore in the line at the coffee stand at the airport.

Three years ago, my luggage got lost coming through Detroit Metro. Both ways.

Two years ago, I got trapped in Denver for six days due to a blizzard, missing Christmas. And then got delayed getting back for two more days due to fog one morning at O’Hare.

Last year, I got stuck overnight in O’Hare and spent much of Thanksgiving Day there.

This year I thought I’d be smart and avoid DTW and O’Hare altogether, by flying through Milwaukee, and save a little money as well. Then barely missed the big wreck at Denver, got stuck overnight at Milwaukee due to a blizzard, flew in to Manistee in another blizzard with whiteouts and driving winds, got delayed flying out yesterday due to freezing rain, and when they did attempt to leave, the plane slid on a patch of ice while turning onto the runway and slid its nose gear into the grass, causing another day’s delay.

And then when I left Traverse City this morning, I got the full search at security, including a full visual inspection of a box of fudge I was carrying after a swab test of the package returned some sort of suspicious indication. (I knew there was a reason everyone disliked the “fudgies” we had to put up with in the summers as part of being a tourist mecca, but I had no idea it was because they were terrorists.)

But I finally made it back, in one piece, and I did get a nice picture while I was waiting in Milwaukee:

More on last week’s topics when I get caught up.

Columbia Report Coming Out

Well this is a surprise - CNN is reporting that NASA will be releasing today the final report on the Columbia accident investigation today. This is not the what-caused-it report, but the what-happened-during analysis. Specifically, the report findings we saw concerned how the breakup progressed from initiation to completion and what can be learned to improve spacecraft design for crew survivability.

Not sure if they’ll give as much detail to the public as we got in a briefing back in January, but if so it’s both fascinating and gruesome. It’s simply amazing what the investigators have been able to piece together from very little information.

UPDATE: Keith Cowing has posted a ton of links to the report and related coverage. Since I’m not clear on whether the release of the report frees us from the embargo we signed up for as a condition of getting the briefing from the invedtigators, I’ll wait to comment on it until I get some clarification.

How to Live On Mars

I’ll do a more thorough review of it when I get home again to reliable internet service, but I read Bob Zubrin’s new book How to Live On Mars yesterday.

It was funny, and a clever take on the subject, but there was a lot I found myself disagreeing with. In particular the sanction given to graft and corruption as though an integral and natural part of a free-market economy - that is, treating it not like a economic and political cancer which decent folk will refrain from if not actually fight against, nor like an unsavory necessity to be minimized where unavoidable, but as the very spice and zest of business itself. I recognize that it’s probably just overcooked irony, but after seeing the gag repeated so many times and in so many contexts, one begins to wonder. Ayn Rand it ain’t.

He does get in a couple of good digs at O’Neillians and warm-mongers, which is amusing, along with NASA (natch), and bureaucracies in general.

What surprised me (and probably shouldn’t have) is that he gets several things wrong with the technology, or else overlooks obvious solutions to shortcomings his narrator describes. In most cases where I noticed this, though, Zubrin clearly favored some alternative, and was simply presenting a straw-man argument against the others (e.g. his biased treatment of mechanical counterpressure suits throughout). Taking license with the technology for comic effect is okay in pure fiction, but in a book stocked in the non-fiction section and written by someone widely regarded as an authority on the technology of Mars exploration and settlement, it risks interfering with the real thing by poisoning the well against those ideas unfairly lampooned or creatively misrepresented by the author. How many budding young space settlers, having read this book, will now carry Bob Zubrin’s jokes and opinions-presented-as-facts in their heads as unexamined received wisdom?

Could Be Worse

I was going to complain about getting trapped in Milwaukee overnight by high winds here and blizzard conditions elsewhere (our plane out got stuck in Racine and never came in). And how I couldn’t upload pics from my Blackberry of the arctic conditions outside my hotel room last night. But at least our flight made it out of Denver intact.

Meanwhile, I’m reading Matt Bai’s “The Argument” while I wait for my flight to Manistee. Interesting insights into the Democrat party’s internet-centric reformation after 2004, with lots of useful advice for the GOP. Unfortunately, Bai’s analysis of the GOP itself is undermined by a reliance on left-wing myths, verging in places into almost the sort of caricatures one encounters on MSNBC or Air America.

UPDATE: they seem to have gotten the plane thawed out now, 2+ hours after our planned departure time, just waiting for it to show up at the gate.

So, three Christmases ago I vowed to never fly through Detroit Metro again. I forget why, probably a lost bag or something. Ever since, I’ve had at most one normal, uninterrupted/undelayed flight (Thanksgiving this year) through O’hare or now Milwaukee. In contrast I’ve never been stuck overnight in Detroit.

UPDATE: after what had to be the most unpleasant flight I’ve ever had, I finally made it into Manistee just before the airport was closed due to high winds and the two feet of snow coming in. Truly amazing winter weather - which we then spent two hours driving about 40 miles through. Ugh.

Questionable Advice

Obama appoints a Paul Ehrlich pal as his science advisor. Nice.

Maybe next he’ll pick Robert Park or Bruce Gagnon for NASA Administrator.

ADDENDUM: Commenter Brock at Rand’s place makes an apt observation:

I’d prefer a Science Advisor who saw technology and scientific advancement as a solution to problems, rather than a being a problem.

Snow…in December…in New Orleans

That’s Michoud across the street there…somewhere…

[thanks to Eileen for posting the pics yesterday]

All I Want for Christmas…

…is a Multiple Kill Vehicle [video]. Now that is cool.

 (Imagine the hue and cry if a toy company actually marketed a product under a name like that…)

Dan Goldin Called…

…and he wants his schtick back.

I’d hazard a guess that Mike Griffin senses his days as NASA Administrator (and Ares I’s as the Orion launch vehicle) are numbered.

Another Bit of “Shuttle Derived” Jettisoned

Well, unless one claims Shuttle heritage from the stillborn ASRM program - I must have missed this bit of news when it first emerged in August, but I was busy at the time with the Democrat convention:

Cook would like to get industry involved as early as possible. He stated that a point of departure design has been identified, along with key technology areas, such as a composite case booster. He noted that lessons learned from the Ares 1 vehicle integration are being applied, as well as from previous contract constructs.

The fact that NASA is learning from the Ares 1 experience and applying those lessons to Ares V shouldn’t be surprising, and in fact should be encouraging in a way. The question is whether they’re learning the right lessons from Ares 1. Given NASA’s desire to build an über-launcher, and the problems experienced with Ares 1’s solid first stage, perhaps there are other, more cost-effective ways to hit Ares V’s intended performance targets besides developing largely from scratch yet another solid rocket that merely looks like Shuttle’s to use as a booster.

Recalling that the ASRM program spent about $2B in early 1990s dollars before being scrapped (without ever entering production), the additional cost to Constellation of the change to a composite motor case should re-open the trade space to those Shuttle-derived booster concepts which entail large liquid engines but use truly Shuttle-heritage SRBs (or no SRBs at all). (For comparison, per Dwayne Day the estimated cost of the F-1 engine development program in 1991 dollars was $1.7B.) So, if building a big booster is what NASA wants to do for Constellation, and the new administration sustains that approach in its space policy, the cost associated with the apparent need to change to a composite SRB casing ought to motivate some re-thinking about exactly what that big booster should look like.

This discussion was also interesting:

He stated that the contracting approach includes maintaining NASA ownership of overall Ares V vehicle system architecture and key discipline areas; there will be government led contractor teams acquired through dedicated contract activity; the contracted work will involve severable entities with clear evaluation criteria so NASA can go elsewhere if needed; 5 work packages are being considered; and the request for proposal is in development with an aim to release it mid-December. He noted that when the NASA civil servants feel ownership of the products, the morale, excitement, and quality goes up dramatically.

Whether the quality, etc. goes up depends at how far down in the details “ownership of the products” goes, and how stable, clear, and predictable the working relationship is between the civil servant “owners” of a product and the contractors doing the work. Speaking from experience on a number of programs, having a constantly-shuffling team of masters adversarially challenging details whose background they are unfamiliar with, repeatedly demanding answers to questions already answered for others with whom they haven’t communicated, issuing vague and shifting requirements, and mandating significant changes and unstudied “improvements” is not a recipe for contractor morale, regardless of the benefits to the morale of the civil servants involved. In contrast, a clearly-defined “ownership” relationship between the agency and its contractors, stability in the requirements and processes and leaders in the program, and good communications and cooperative, non-adversarial relationships among the people involved at the working level go a long way towards improving morale, excitement, and quality all around. It’s natural that a customer should have involvement in a project they are after all paying for, but the nature and extent of that involvement is also important to the end result.

Nice

A GMD interceptor has once again worked in a test firing.

As alluded to in the post, one has to wonder just how much “proof” the Obama administration will require to “prove” that missile defense at all levels is “proven technology”…or whether that vague standard is just weasel-words to rationalize an eventual pullback from Bush administration plans for deployment and international participation.