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Columbia Report Coming Out

Well this is a surprise – CNN is reporting that NASA will be releasing today the final report on the Columbia accident investigation today. This is not the what-caused-it report, but the what-happened-during analysis. Specifically, the report findings we saw concerned how the breakup progressed from initiation to completion and what can be learned to improve spacecraft design for crew survivability.

Not sure if they’ll give as much detail to the public as we got in a briefing back in January, but if so it’s both fascinating and gruesome. It’s simply amazing what the investigators have been able to piece together from very little information.

UPDATE: Keith Cowing has posted a ton of links to the report and related coverage. Since I’m not clear on whether the release of the report frees us from the embargo we signed up for as a condition of getting the briefing from the invedtigators, I’ll wait to comment on it until I get some clarification.

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Challenger | Columbia

Challenger Columbia
Paul, David and I were having lunch in the cafeteria. Joe, one of those kids who’d been to Space Camp and was a true fanatic about the space program, came in and sat at our table, his face drained of color, in something of a daze. Obviously something had him upset, but we couldn’t imagine what — his attitude was so unlike Joe and so out of place that it didn’t seem quite real.

“What’s up?” one of us asked.

“Challenger,” he said, “it just exploded.”

I don’t think the words registered at first. I know I remember not having any idea what he was talking about — for all the hype about the Teacher in Space launch, I had been completely unaware that the launch was to be that morning.

“The Shuttle…Challenger…it just blew up. Didn’t you hear about it?”

Now that we knew what he meant, of course we didn’t believe him. Shuttles didn’t “blow up”, after all. There had been no announcement from the principal. No one else in the cafeteria seemed to be acting as if anything so shocking had happened. We thought he was pulling some sort of prank. But then again…Joe? Joke about something this important to him? What if he was serious…?

He managed to persuade us that he might not be joking. I can’t recall now how he said he had learned about it, but given the time and place (high school, 1986, pre-internet-accessibility, pre-cellphone-ubiquity), it was probably over the radio.

It happened that David, Paul and I had a programming class after lunch, taught by David’s father. I remembered that the computer lab had a television suspended from the ceiling in one corner of the room, and it dawned on me that we might be able to tune in the news on it. David’s father let us in when he heard Joe’s story, and in a few minutes we had the television tuned into the news. I don’t think I quite believed Joe’s story even after I first saw the now-iconic white arcs against the blue sky on the screen, since it wasn’t clear to me yet what I was looking at. But after a few minutes, after the broadcast networks had replayed the video of the explosion several times, it was undeniable that he had been telling the truth all along.

We didn’t even bother with class that day, we simply watched the news coverage throughout fifth period. I don’t remember now what we did in sixth period, if anything, but I am quite sure that the principal never made any announcements about the accident — something that strikes me as odd in hindsight, but then I can’t recall any other major event of that period of the Eighties being announced at school, either…this was one of those rare historical moments that I found out about well before I got home and turned on CNN.

Funny that at the time of the accident, it was only just beginning to dawn on us kids that the promises made for the Shuttle probably weren’t ever going to come to fruition. Spaceflight wasn’t, in fact, safe and routine, and nevermind cheap. The Shuttle was going to launch at something less than a flight a week. It wasn’t going to usher in the age of O’Neill colonies. It probably wasn’t even going to launch from California, given the ongoing problems with the launch site there. If you had told me then that twenty years later I would be working on the replacement for the Shuttle, I wouldn’t have believed it — first, because it would have surprised me that NASA wouldn’t already have developed something new by then, and second, because I was applying to liberal arts programs at the time, having been told by my career counselor at school that I needed to be an “Einstein in math” to be an engineer.

Two and a half years later, Eric, Eric, Mark, Marc, Ken, and I watched the Return to Flight launch live on a TV in the dorms at Michigan State. After a torrent of dark and tasteless jokes, I think we were all relieved that the launch was uneventful. After the launch (and after having learned the previous quarter that math was easy if I actually did the homework), I started to wonder if maybe I shouldn’t have been an engineer after all.

The phone rang.

I wasn’t happy at all. I had just arrived in Denver six days earlier, and this Saturday morning was the first opportunity I’d had to sleep in and get adjusted to the altitude and the time difference, and here someone was waking me up at a little after seven-thirty. It was my mother. Newsworthy things (like 9/11) seem to only happen when I am out of town, so I typically ask my parents to call and let me know if something important happens. I had a vague feeling that this must be one of those times.

“Are you watching TV?” she asked.

“No,” I mumbled, still half-asleep. “I was in bed. You know what time it is out here, right?”

“Well, you might want to turn it on.”

“What,” I asked, sure now that this was one of those ‘something newsworthy’ calls, “did they start the war?”

“No — the Space Shuttle blew up again.”

“Ahh, crap.”

I hung up with a promise to call her later, after finding out what had happened. I had an ominous feeling this time around, the nagging suspicion that I knew something about what had gone wrong. There was all that talk at Michoud last week…about the ET…something about the foam?

Luckily I had bought a small TV a couple of days earlier, so that I could watch the news concerning the approaching war. Sure enough, there on the screen was a unique yet eerily familiar set of debris contrails against a blue sky. This being 2003, however, I fired up the PC in between cellphone calls from and to friends, and started blogging.

And the next day, I elected to take down the handful of posts concerning what I knew of the foam and what I had gleaned from hallway conversations the week before (posts I could kick myself now for not having saved somewhere). Speculations on just how much foam had been shed from the bipod, whether the environment-related blowing agent change might have played a role in the foam coming loose, the sense from ET engineers tasked to perform a quick analysis that the Shuttle program wasn’t overly concerned with the observed foam shedding at the time, annoyance that NASA treated popcorning and other foam events as maintenance issues and had little interest in actually solving the root problem to save the money and time spent fixing tiles, etc. No one forced me to take down those posts, but my boss was happy that I had done so since by Monday morning we were under orders not to discuss the accident in public forums or with reporters who might call or “ambush” us.

Michoud was a busier-than-usual place by the time I got back from Denver in mid-May. All the parking spots within fifty yards of the building were now reserved for NASA people, where one used to be hard pressed to find the resident NASA representatives anywhere on site (excluding Jerry Smelser, who had an unnerving habit of popping out from behind hardware for an impromptu meet-and-greet with random employees when nobody in management even knew he was at the facility). They had actually hired a few new employees as staffing-up began for Return to Flight. And work was beginning on an effort to convert ET engineering from CADDS5 raster-scans to actual 3D models in CATIA to support RTF flight analyses (an upgrade that should have been done years earlier, in my opinion). I think the tanks on-site were still under guard at that time.

If you had told me then that five years later I would be working on the replacement for the Shuttle, and that it would be a capsule, and that it would be riding on a rehashed SRB, I wouldn’t have believed it. But then, it’s not like I’m all that great at predicting the future.

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ET Foam Loss Images

NASA has a few new images online, showing some significant foam shedding from the ET during yesterday’s launch.

The larger loss, and the one shown on a stillframe from the ET Cam feed, is a piece of the PAL ramp (the foam fillet along the cable tray at the forward end of the LH2 tank). Two other comparatively small foam loss areas are visible by the port (left) bipod fitting — and yes, that is the same area from which the foam that doomed Columbia originated (and which was subsequently redesigned).

The blackening at the aft end of the ET is due to radiant heating from the engine plume, and does not appear unusual.

UPDATE: This problem appears to have caused enough concern at NASA that the fleet has been grounded again until it can be resolved.

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Return to Flight

Looks like NASA’s back in the spaceflight business.

Watched the launch on NASA TV at work with about two dozen other engineers. The highlight of the launch was (naturally) the ET Cam — every time the live feed switched to it, an appreciative murmur went through the crowd, and ET jettison was met with a chorus of awestruck “Ooohs” and “Aaahs”.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t 100% picture perfect, as there is apparently some cause for concern:

A 1 1/2-inch-wide bit of tile captured on camera appeared to fly off the shuttle’s belly, on the edge of a door that encloses the nose landing gear. It was not clear if the tile had been struck by anything. Pieces of tile, which protect the shuttle from searing heat on return to Earth, have been lost on past flights without preventing a safe homecoming.

“We’re going frame-by-frame through the imagery,” said John Shannon, a NASA operations manager.

Also, NASA video revealed what appeared to be a sizable piece of material – maybe a chunk of insulation – coming off the shuttle’s external fuel tank two minutes into flight. It did not strike the orbiter that carries the seven astronauts, the NASA manager said.

Given the fact that foam has typically fallen off the ET on ascent, I have to wonder how much what concern there is over the insulation is motivated by new data: being able to actually see the problem happening for once, instead of only seeing the effect of foam shedding post-landing. Perhaps the ET routinely sheds cable-tray foam (or whatever it ends up being identified as) with no ill effects.

Losing a tile around the nose gear door, however, is a little more concerning. It’s hard to tell from the picture and the data provided so far how serious it is, or whether it too is in-family with prior tile damage. It should be very interesting to see how this develops — especially with all the neat new gizmos aboard to test for (and potentially repair) such damage.

Interestingly, I was talking with a non-engineer friend this evening who was quite enthusiastic over today’s launch. Out of the blue, she said that she herself wanted to fly into space, if it were possible someday to do it (which, of course, may be possible sooner rather than later) — the salient point here being that while she was excited about NASA resuming the civil space program, she clearly did not consider NASA the end-all, be-all of space travel. It made me wonder just how many laypeople’s minds are moving in the same direction.

On the other hand, I caught the first few minutes of Rush Limbaugh while driving between offices this morning, and his guest host Mark Belling seems to have had his head in the sand with respect to space exploration for the past year and a half. He spent about ten minutes talking about the launch and NASA in general, congratulating NASA on the safe launch before launching himself into a rant about the problem with NASA being its lack of focus: NASA hasn’t had big public support since Apollo, he reasoned, because it hasn’t had an organizing goal since Apollo, and what it really needs is something tangible to strive for…like, say, a return to the Moon and possibly sending humans to Mars.

It was truly bizarre, as if I were somehow tuned in to radio signals from a parallel universe, one in which the VSE had never been proposed and NASA was not now reorganizing itself around the very goals this guy was advocating. It seemed to be the flip-side of my friend’s reaction to the launch — here someone I wouldn’t have guessed to be interested in space was inspired to want to take her own trip someday, while someone I would have expected to be up on Bush Administration policies was embarrassingly unaware of a quite significant policy relevant to the subject he was discussing.

Sadly, I wasn’t able to listen to any more of the show to see how many listeners called in to point out his error.

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Huh?

“Foam killed NASA athletes”

Well, there go NASA’s gold medal chances.

Seriously, though, this bit seems odd:

Gaps, or voids, were often left, and tests done since the Columbia accident have shown liquid hydrogen could seep into those voids.

“Liquid hydrogen”? If liquid hydrogen was seeping into a void beneath the bipod ramp, I’d think the foam void itself would be the lesser concern. I suspect that should have been “liquified air”.

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ET Camera Redux

One wonders how things might have turned out differently had this worked as intended from the beginning. Or, even having been blinded by the SRB separation motors as it was, it continued to be used on subsequent flights…it certainly would have shown the leading-edge damage blamed for the Columbia accident.

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Provenance

Not quite gone yet. Found this (much to my surprise) while packing:
provenance.jpg
While I’ve met a handful of astronauts at Safety Days and the like, I can’t remember making note of a meeting like this for any of the others. I had forgotten about this meeting, in fact, though I vaguely remember being in the middle of something and getting unexpectedly interrupted by a group of astronauts, one of whom shook my hand and gave me these pins. What a coincidence.

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Belt and Suspenders

NASA apparently plans to have a second shuttle at the ready in case anything goes wrong during the next mission.

Astronauts could use the space station as a “save haven” [sic] if there is trouble with the orbiter while it is in space, said Michael Kostelnik, NASA’s deputy associate administrator for the space station and shuttle programs.

“The second vehicle would be able to launch and go to the space station and pick up the first crew if we had a problem with the vehicle and could not bring it down,” Kostelnik said in a briefing from Galveston, Texas.

What if it does? Can they actually dock two Orbiters to ISS? Could two Orbiters with docking adapters mate with each other for crew transfer? (Is the androgynous docking adapter that, uh, “open minded”?)

More info here on Shuttle safety upgrades.

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Another Anniversary

Rand Simberg pointed out yesterday that it was the thirty-seventh anniversary of the Apollo 1 fire. I was too young to remember that event (being about two and a half years pre-birth at that time), but I do remember what happened eighteen years ago today.

Many of the people I work with were involved with the Shuttle program at that time, so I heard several different “where I was” accounts today.

Me, I was a junior in high school. I had lunch period starting around noon. A few minutes into lunch, one of my friends (a big space nut, who had been to space camp several times and knew all sorts of Shuttle specs and arcana by heart) came in and sat very quietly at the table. He was white as a ghost, and from the look on his face something was very obviously wrong.

We asked him if he was okay, and he told us that the Space Shuttle had just blown up. For a moment, there was silence, and then we all scoffed…”Naaaah, you’re just joking!” Was there even a Shuttle launch scheduled that day? Did anyone (besides Joe) even pay attention to the boring old Shuttle anymore? It had to be a joke, and he had done a good job of faking us out there, for a moment anyhow.

But no, he insisted that it was true. After trying for several minutes to convince us, someone suggested looking for a television — surely it would be all over the networks if the story were true. For most of us, our next period was a programming class (Pascal, on the original Macintosh), and someone remembered that there was a big TV hanging on the wall in the computer lab, one the teacher sometimes used as a monitor for instruction purposes.

When we got there and rigged the monitor up as a receiver again, the first thing we saw was the now famous footage of the forked exhaust plumes hanging in the sky, the SRBs spiralling away out of control to either side of the big white cloud that had just recently been a fully-fueled Shuttle.

At that point, we began to believe him.

Unsurprisingly, we didn’t do any programming work in class that day. Instead, we watched the explosion footage over and over, from a couple different angles, and the footage of the reactions from the crowds gathered to watch the launch live — most notably in the auditorium of Christa McAuliffe’s school. Here were these kids, some not much younger than we were, watching and cheering, and then suddenly growing very quiet and wide-eyed, and then bursting into tears and sobs.

I don’t recall being all that upset at the time (any more than I was when Columbia burned up a year ago Sunday), but at some point later, the footage of the launch, and especially the images of the forked plumes, became unwatchable.

This afternoon, in a staff meeting at work, someone played a video, in which the signature footage of the two disasters was compiled together to illustrate why safety and doing the job right is so important. Sure enough, there was the famous “Go for throttle-up”/forked plume footage from Challenger, and after it came some footage (obviously more recent) from inside Mission Control at JSC. In this footage, the controllers are sitting at their stations, watching the monitors, as a series of blips track Columbia’s progress along its planned ground track. There are a few snatches of radio traffic, in which the crew is told that everything looks fine, aside from some slightly high readings from the wheel-well sensors, and is asked to repeat the last message. Then, a burst of unintelligible audio. Then a voice saying over and over, “Columbia, Houston, please respond…”. From there, the video switches to the now-famous footage of the comet streaking across Texas…..which was, like the plume footage from Challenger, the first thing I saw on television after being told about the accident.

It didn’t have quite the impact that the Challenger footage used to have, but it was much more disturbing than it was last year, when the accident happened. I suppose it takes a while for the importance and emotional impact of some historical events to sink in.

At the time of the Challenger accident, there was a brief time (a few days, maybe a week) when it was an open question whether the U.S. would go back to space, whether the Shuttles would ever fly again. But soon, we were assured that yes, the fleet would “return to flight” (a phrase I never expected to hear again after watching STS-26 lift off, between classes in a friend’s dorm room, having just started my second year in college by that time). And a year and a half later, NASA announced that a fifth flight Orbiter would be built — surely a sign that the program and the U.S. presence in space would continue.

Little did we know that it would continue going around in circles for the next fourteen-plus years.

After the Columbia accident, it looked to me even more likely that the U.S. might give up on space. Not at first, no, and not highly likely, but much more likely than after Challenger. The ISS program was long-delayed and massively over budget, and it was becoming apparent even to the public that it would never live up to the promises made for it. NASA had lost two Mars probes due to (frankly) stupid mistakes, and had botched yet another attempt to build a replacement for Shuttle, prompting many to wonder if the agency still had “what it takes”. And when presented with the opportunity to renew public interest and enthusiasm for its mission by opening the hatches of ISS to a nascent space tourism business, NASA peevishly informed the citizenry that space was not for them, but only for an elect few subsidized supermen who were above such pedestrian things as paying for the trip and enjoying it as an end in itself (yes, it was mostly Dan Goldin, but the agency as a whole bore the mark for his sins). It was not looking good for NASA, after February 1, 2003.

But…

There had also been, for some time preceding the accident, calls from the space advocacy community for a new vision for NASA, something more meaningful and productive than growing bean sprouts and tadpoles in microgravity. And this accident has ultimately brought that call to the forefront.

This time around, the loss of an Orbiter has indeed meant the cancellation of the Space Shuttle program — but not immediately, and not in a way that results in our having no space program left at all. As I noted here on the day before Columbia’s final launch, it took a terrible shock for the agency — and the Administration — to get serious about a new approach to getting to space, and to find a new purpose for doing so.

It’s too early to say whether this latest effort will bear fruit any better than its predecessors of the past two decades. But with any luck, on the eighteenth anniversary of the Columbia accident, we’ll be able to look back on some real progress in opening up space.

And with a whole lot of luck, we may be doing that looking back from Mars.

[Update: the time stamp on this post is deceiving -- I actually published it after midnight on the 28th, but the date reflects when I first saved the draft. Hence the text appears to be a day out of synch with the anniversaries.]

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What?!?

Shuttle flights may be delayed again.

Citing interviews with unnamed shuttle engineers, USA Today reported Thursday that an engineer told officials the nose cap was not inspected during the overhaul, because at that time it was not known that the metal beneath the nose cap could corrode. An unknown shuttle worker incorrectly recorded that the inspection had been done, according to USA Today’s account.

Excuse me, but how does NASA not know that the hardware under the nose cap could corrode, when depot overhauls typically include extensive repairs to corroded structure?

In fact, a simple Google search for “shuttle corrosion” led me to a document at JSC, NASA TM-104810, “Space Shuttle Orbiter Corrosion History, 1981-1993″, published in June 1995 by the Orbiter Corrosion Control Review Board. Searching within this document for “nose”, one finds on pg. 31 a table listing 24 corrosion incidents associated with the nose caps, hatches, and doors (though no further breakout by zone is provided), while on page 16, section 4.1 describes corrosion issues with the RCC panel attach hardware and spars along the wing leading edges. One would think someone would have made a connection…

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A young girl sets out to prove herself by resolving a long-forgotten mystery. But when she gets close to the truth, what she thought was a harmless adventure becomes a threat to the future of the independent commercial settlements on Mars.

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