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The End?

Could it be that the Kistler K-1 is finally dead?

Not quite yet, but they seem to be under warning from NASA.

Warning Sign?

It makes me a little suspicious when a cutting-edge project releases slick graphics of its plans.

In this case, my suspicions specifically concern Virgin Galactic appearing to put the cart before the horse. Wouldn’t it be more prudent to focus on getting the WK2/SS2 fleet operational and generating a revenue stream before spending millions of dollars on a grandiose facility? As much confidence as I have in Virgin Galactic itself getting off the ground, I look at this design and can’t help but imagine it five years from now, a half-finished white elephant for sale at pennies on the dollar.

I’m not especially impressed with the design, either. It’s okay, I guess, but I’m not a fan of “modern architecture” like this. It looks to me like a giant seabottom creature tragically marooned in the desert rather than Tomorrow’s Spaceport Of The Future™ — function shoehorned into someone’s brainchild form, a form which could have been recycled from a losing proposal for a bank or public library or exclusive cosmetic surgery clinic or any number of non-space-related facilities.

ADDENDUM: I guess my mind’s not in the gutter where it belongs…I saw a manta ray, where Ann Althouse saw something entirely different.

Then there’s this: “it looks more like a Klingon toilet seat”. So there is a space-specific theme to the design, after all!

Carnival of Space #17

Emily Lakdawalla is hosting it, over at The Planetary Society’s weblog.

Long Road to Space

No, I’m not talking about Barbara Morgan, I mean ET-117.

One of my jobs at Michoud was in the production engineering department, helping to perform kaizen events on the factory floor. Specifically, in the part of the assembly sequence where various fittings are welded into the tank domes and where the two segments of the ogival portion of the LOx tank were assembled. This was from September 2000 through around April 2001.

One of the three tanks in production in that area at the time was ET-117, which I see is the tank used on the current mission.

There was still a long way to go from there to a completed tank (made longer than it would normally have been by Return To Flight rework and the standdowns, of course), but it’s a little odd to see it finally fly and realize just how long ago all of that was.

Space Polyps

What?

Galactic Suite began as a hobby for former aerospace engineer Claramunt, until a space enthusiast decided to make the science fiction fantasy a reality by fronting most of the $3 billion needed to build the hotel.

An American company intent on colonizing Mars, which sees Galaxy Suite as a first step, has since come on board, and private investors from Japan, the United States and the United Arab Emirates are in talks.

Perhaps the right question is “Who?”. It’s unlikely to be Robert Bigelow, since he’s got his own space hotel program in the works. It could be Elon Musk, but it sounds like this backer is a bit wealther than he is if the guy can afford to drop $3B (or a substantial portion of it) on this project. Paul Allen could probably afford it, but why then isn’t his own launcher shown as the access vehicle? Dennis Tito? Charles Simonyi? Someone else?

Or is it just a powerpoint project? I suspect the latter, especially after looking over the company’s website. And especially after seeing their images of the hotel…unless the thing is carring a small, well-shielded nuke in one of its polyps, power is going to be a problem, as is the active thermal control required to handle all that “intimate activity” going on inside…not to mention stationkeeping…and adequate communications…and MMOD protection (especially with those gigantic windows).

Falcon or Vulture?

Color me surprised that Kistler is still not financed, at least as of a week ago.

However, reading the first few paragraphs…

The manager of the NASA program subsidizing development of the K-1 said July 31 he is willing to give RpK more time to complete its financing.

“RpK is making good progress and we are being patient to give them every opportunity to succeed,” Alan Lindenmoyer, manager of NASA’s Johnson Space Center-based Commercial Crew and Cargo program, said through a spokeswoman. “We have not given them a deadline, and as specified in the Space Act Agreement, are assessing the situation to determine if further efforts are in the best interest of both parties.”

…got me to wondering how long it would be before SpaceX sent in its lawyers to protest what has the appearance (whether or not it has the substance) of NASA giving RpK special treatment.

Imagine my surprise when I read this at the end of the article:

RpK’s competitors have been busy in recent weeks lobbying NASA on how it should spend the remaining $175 million should the U.S. space agency declare RpK in default on its COTS agreement, something that has not happened yet.

Some of the COTS finalists would like to see NASA using RpK’s money to bring on one or more new competitors. But Space Exploration Technologies, the other company NASA selected last August to receive financial assistance with its space station re-supply system, has been urging NASA to give it RpK’s remaining money to step up development of a crewed capability.

Nice.

Space Utopianism

Someone forwarded this to me from the Mars-Civ list:

So, when I think about [the difference between “territory” in space and on a planet] I don’t believe in territorial arguments for space. I don’t believe in classical claims as we know them on this planet and our legal mechanisms we have developed to process them. That would be applying a terrestrial mindset grown on drawing lines on 2D charts of unchanging topography to a vastly different environment where everything moves all the time in 3D. Except of course when you go down on a planet or planetoid and drive in stakes on its surface. But what is there deep down in these gravity wells that isn’t much more cheaply had from asteroids?

Besides, “claims” seem to already predict competition, when actually everything looks like only people who cooperate to the max with others (including their “competition”) have a chance of truly making it in space, whereas people with a competitive mindset holding back with sharing what they know and can do in order to beat the competition will perish in the long run. Was it Christina Merl who once coined the term “coopetition”? That’s how it’s beginning to feel when trying to grasp the implied complexities of a space effort beyond just getting the technology right, and includes the vital economics and politics.

So, for me this seems to reinforce the idea that we’re all in this together and need to cooperate to the max and focus on getting something happening out there, and for the time being not worry about classical planet-grown concerns of “claims”.

In other words, the existing human institutions concerning property rights and markets are unworkable in space. Why? Just because. They are. So, we have to cooperate with others, which will bring us together as a species, limit conflicts on Earth, and (as this writer asserts elsewhere) reduce the risk of violence against space assets by those whose feelings are hurt by being left out of the capitalist free-for-all that competition in space would create.

This sort of utopian thinking about space bugs me whenever I come across it. It’s not hard to find space advocates who take as an unargued assumption that the social, political, and economic systems which have evolved on Earth over six or so millennia simply must be left behind when we enter space, and whole new institutions must be created to deal with the very different environment we will find there. And as is so often the case, this writer (in further comments) insists that the new system be one to which everyone in the world will agree (good luck with that), yet doesn’t define that system in any detail beyond how satisfied people will undoubtedly be with the finished product. He’s focused on the feel-good outcome only, with no idea of how to achieve it but an absolute, unshakeable faith that if we just want it hard enough and are willing to work together with our fellow wo/man, it will happen and it will be right and good and all the things that traditional institutions are apparently not.

The problem is, we don’t have to go into space and try it to know how this approach will turn out, since it has been tried quite a few times right here on Earth over the past two centuries. In various countries the old institutions have been swept aside in the name of cooperation and consensus, and new orders have been declared in which everyone would work together for the common good instead of striving against one another in competition. But these efforts have always failed, because they are always built around the assumption that human nature can be modified to suit the utopian vision. While it’s true that institutions like property rights and markets and competition (i.e.: capitalism) evolved within specific social and cultural environments here on Earth, it’s less trivially true that they evolved to suit human nature as it is and so have proven effective even when applied to a wide range of social and cultural environments outside those they originated in.

Throwing away human institutions which demonstrably work simply because they are “planet-grown” amounts to throwing away the successful products of thousands of years of human history in favor of shallow and starry-eyed dreams of a utopian future which anyone with a basic knowledge of history can see are doomed to failure…new environment or no.

Accidents Happen

I don’t have anything direct to add to what’s already been said about the Scaled Composites accident in Mojave this week, the news of which has been captured well by Rand Simberg and Clark Lindsay. It’s a sad event, but ultimately it is something we should expect to happen as the space industry develops. No industry is immune from deadly accidents, however much we would like it to be otherwise, and the steps we take to avoid them may reduce their occurrence but will never completely eliminate them.

Rand expresses some concern that people like Jim Oberstar will use this developmental accident as a justification for imposing more regulation on alt.space. Maybe so, but at least alt.space is not as politicized as NASA — I find it hard to imagine that there will be a protracted stand-down at Scaled Composites/Virgin Galactic while an in-depth investigation is conducted, hearings are held, fingers are pointed, and huge sums are money are spent on new tools and technologies to very publicly close the specific barn door involved. Alt.space cannot afford this sort of theater if it is ever to become a significant industry.

The dead must be mourned, yes, but the work must continue.

Happy Trinity Day!

It’s the 62nd anniversary of the Trinity test, the first test of a nuclear weapon.

Somewhat appropriately, Glenn Reynolds links to a PM article on a new sort of bomb, one whose shrapnel explodes on sharp impacts with surrounding objects. The new technology may spell the end of the cluster bomb, but somehow I doubt that even that will make Bruce Gagnon, et al, hate it any less.

Doc Out

Scott Horowitz is leaving — NASA’s Exploration Chief to Step Down:

After leaving the astronaut corps in 2004, Horowitz joined Alliant Techsystems as its director of exploration and space transportation. In that role, Horowitz vigorously pushed for using the space shuttle solid-rocket booster (SRB) as the basis for NASA’s next crewed launch vehicle.
In 2005, before Horowitz rejoined NASA, the agency selected the four segment SRB-based crew launch vehicle design over competing designs that would have made use of the Atlas 5 or Delta 4 rockets developed under the U.S. Air Force’s Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle program.
The main stage of the Ares I crew launch vehicle is being built for NASA by Alliant Techsystems.

It’s unlikely this far along, but it would be nice if he could take his brainchild with him when he goes.