Comments on: Waiting for the Ares I/Orion/Constellation Obituary http://marsblog.net/wp/2010/01/waiting-for-the-ares-i-orion-constellation-obituary/ News and Commentary on Space Fri, 16 Dec 2011 23:25:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: mike shupp http://marsblog.net/wp/2010/01/waiting-for-the-ares-i-orion-constellation-obituary/comment-page-1/#comment-1496 mike shupp Fri, 29 Jan 2010 02:22:20 +0000 http://marsblog.net/wp/?p=1853#comment-1496 These "commercial space services" are going to appear only with a generous dollop of federal money -- the 6 billion in additional spending NASA is supposed to receive over the next five years will basically pay for R&D costs of at most one COTS-D launcher. And assuming one flight per month for crew or cargo to the space station, there's opportunity for at most 100 commercial flights between now and the end of 2020 (less if European and Japanese and Russian resupply vehicles are employed). This doesn't look like an air mail scenario to me. It looks like contractor support -- like having Raytheon technicians and Pratt and Whitney engineers working alongside military flight crews at overseas AF bases. Maybe it'll progress to the point where commercial space takes a larger role in operations, like Blackwater in Iraq. But that's a long way away from regularly scheduled Pan Am flights to the moon. These “commercial space services” are going to appear only with a generous dollop of federal money — the 6 billion in additional spending NASA is supposed to receive over the next five years will basically pay for R&D costs of at most one COTS-D launcher. And assuming one flight per month for crew or cargo to the space station, there’s opportunity for at most 100 commercial flights between now and the end of 2020 (less if European and Japanese and Russian resupply vehicles are employed).

This doesn’t look like an air mail scenario to me. It looks like contractor support — like having Raytheon technicians and Pratt and Whitney engineers working alongside military flight crews at overseas AF bases. Maybe it’ll progress to the point where commercial space takes a larger role in operations, like Blackwater in Iraq. But that’s a long way away from regularly scheduled Pan Am flights to the moon.

]]> By: Jonathan Goff http://marsblog.net/wp/2010/01/waiting-for-the-ares-i-orion-constellation-obituary/comment-page-1/#comment-1468 Jonathan Goff Tue, 26 Jan 2010 17:47:08 +0000 http://marsblog.net/wp/?p=1853#comment-1468 I dunno, while I think canceling Ares-I and the current Program of Record is a great idea, I just can't see congress actually doing it. My guess of what will come out of all of this is a zombified program of record with a few minor tweaks and Titanic-deck-chair rearrangements to punt the problem a few more years down the road. Hopefully there will be some bones thrown at commercial space and advanced R&D, but my hope for Congress directing NASA to do something sensible are pretty low. ~Jon I dunno, while I think canceling Ares-I and the current Program of Record is a great idea, I just can’t see congress actually doing it. My guess of what will come out of all of this is a zombified program of record with a few minor tweaks and Titanic-deck-chair rearrangements to punt the problem a few more years down the road. Hopefully there will be some bones thrown at commercial space and advanced R&D, but my hope for Congress directing NASA to do something sensible are pretty low.

~Jon

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